Will Silver Hit $200 an Ounce?

I work in copper mining in Arizona, so I see the supply side firsthand. Let me give you the honest breakdown.

The case FOR $200 silver is built on real numbers, not hype:

For six consecutive years, global demand has exceeded supply. The cumulative deficit stands at roughly 820 million ounces. That's not speculation—it's data from the Silver Institute, verified by mine production records I can personally confirm from the operations side.

Here's what most people don't understand: 71% of all silver comes as a byproduct of copper mining. We literally cannot produce more silver without opening more copper mines. And copper mine development takes 8-12 years from discovery to production. I've been through the permitting process twice. It's brutal—environmental reviews, community opposition, water rights, endangered species surveys. There is no shortcut.

Meanwhile, solar panels consume 240 million ounces per year and growing 15-20% annually. EVs take another 90 million. AI data centers are emerging as a new source. This demand is locked in by government mandates and corporate commitments through 2030.

The math is straightforward:

• Supply grows at 1-2% per year (constrained by copper mining)
• Demand grows at 5-10% per year (solar, EVs, AI)
• The gap widens every year
• Above-ground stockpiles deplete at 7-10% annually

My honest timeline: $200 is more realistic for 2028-2030 than 2026. This year, $80-$150 is the probable range. But if a supply shock hits—a major mine closure, a geopolitical disruption in Mexico or Peru—$200 could arrive faster than anyone expects.

Your brother-in-law is thinking in terms of historical silver behavior. The structural deficit changes the equation completely. This isn't 2011 speculation. This is industrial consumption exceeding production with no fix in sight.